Knowledge Base Search: 651 results

MYRIAD-EU - A Flood Risk Framework Capturing the Seasonality of and Dependence Between Rainfall and Sea Levels—An Application to Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

State-of-the-art flood hazard maps in coastal cities are often obtained from simulating coastal or pluvial events separately. This method does not account for the seasonality of flood drivers and their mutual dependence. In this article, we include the impact of these two factors in a computationally efficient probabilistic framework for flood risk calculation, using Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) as a case study. HCMC can be flooded subannually by high tide, rainfall, and storm surge events or a combination thereof during the monsoon or tropical cyclones. Using long gauge observations, we stochastically model 10,000 years of rainfall and sea level events based on their monthly distributions, dependence structure and cooccurrence rate. The impact from each stochastic event is then obtained from a damage function built from selected rainfall and sea level combinations, leading to an expected annual damage (EAD) of $1.02 B (95th annual damage percentile of $2.15 B). We find no dependence for most months and large differences in expected damage across months ($36–166 M) driven by the seasonality of rainfall and sea levels. Excluding monthly variability leads to a serious underestimation of the EAD by 72–83%. This is because high-probability flood events, which can happen multiple times during the year and are properly captured by our framework, contribute the most to the EAD. This application illustrates the potential of our framework and advocates for the inclusion of flood drivers' dynamics in coastal risk assessments.

  • Environment and Biodiversity
  • Good Governance
  • Regulatory/standards/targets measures
  • Preparedness

MYRIAD-EU - Breaking the Silos: an online serious game for multi-risk disaster risk reduction (DRR) management

The increased complexity of disaster risk, due to climate change, expected population growth and the increasing interconnectedness of disaster impacts across communities and economic sectors, requires disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures that are better able to address these growing complexities. Especially disaster risk management (DRM) practitioners need to be able to oversee these complexities. Nonetheless, in the traditional risk paradigm, there is a strong focus on single hazards and the risk faced by individual communities and economic sectors. The development of the game and how it aims to support a shift from a single-risk to a multi-risk paradigm are discussed in detail. Breaking the Silos is a serious game designed to support various stakeholders (including policy makers, risk managers, researchers) in understanding and managing the complexities of DRR measures in a multi-risk (multi-hazard) setting, thereby moving away from hazard-silo thinking. What sets Breaking the Silos apart from other disaster risk games is its explicit focus on multi-risk challenges. The game includes different hazard types and intensities (and their interactions), different impact indicators, and (a) synergies between DRR measures. Moreover, the spread of expert knowledge between different participants and the high levels of freedom and randomness in the game design contribute to a realistic game. The game was launched during the World Bank GFDRR's Understanding Risk 2020 Forum and later played again with the same settings with researchers from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich. Feedback from the pre- and post-game surveys indicates that Breaking the Silos was found useful by the participants in increasing awareness of the complexities of risk.

  • Good Governance
  • Regulatory/standards/targets measures
  • Awareness raising
  • Knowledge creation
  • Preparedness

MYRIAD-EU - Multi-stakeholder analysis of fire risk reduction in a densely populated area in the Netherlands: a case-study in the Veluwe area

Reducing the climate change-induced risk of uncontrollable fires in landscapes under nature management, with severe impacts on landscape and society, is particularly urgent in densely-populated and fragmented areas. Reducing fire risk in such areas requires active involvement of a wide diversity of stakeholders. This research letter investigates stakeholders' needs with regard to fire risk reduction in the Veluwe area in the Netherlands. This densely populated landscape is a popular tourist attraction, and it is one of the most fire-prone landscapes of the Netherlands, with abundant fuels and human ignition sources. We draw upon seven in-depth qualitative interviews with key stakeholders in the Veluwe area, which we situate in a wider review of existing literature. Our analysis demonstrates that the rising incidence of uncontrollable fires poses four types of new challenges to these stakeholders in the Veluwe area. First, stakeholders express the need to reshape existing policy tools and develop novel ones that create synergies between existing policy-priorities (e.g. biodiversity conservation) and fire risk reduction. Second, stakeholders argue for a critical rethinking of the value of landscapes in society, and the diverse roles that fire may play in landscape management research and practice. Third, developing such policy tools requires new modalities and platforms for multi-stakeholder and multi-level collaboration, which are currently lacking because the current and expected future risk of uncontrollable fire is unprecedented. And fourth, the development of effective policy tools requires new knowledge that is interdisciplinary, sensitive towards the local social and ecological characteristics of the area, and which approaches current fire risk challenges and their possible solutions dynamically. While our stakeholder analysis is specific to the Veluwe area in the Netherlands, our findings are also likely to be relevant to other fire-prone nature areas in fragmented landscapes, particularly in Northwestern Europe.

  • Environment and Biodiversity
  • Regulatory/standards/targets measures

MYRIAD-EU - Report on policies, policy-making process, and governance for multi-hazard, multi-risk management

How can risks be better managed by considering the interrelated effects of multiple hazards? How can we better account for dynamic feedbacks between risk drivers, and for trade-offs and synergies across sectors, regions, and hazards? These questions are central to the MYRIAD-EU project, which
aims to support risk-informed management and decision-making in the EU. Part 1 of this report investigates and reviews the current multi-risk governance practice in Europe. We analyse existing international and European policies and communications with regard to their consideration of key elements of multi-hazards and multi-risk. We present the national risk
assessment process as an important avenue for risk governance practice in Europe; the assessment within this study concludes that the present embedding of a multi-risk perspective in the national risk assessments does not meet the ambition of the international and European policies. We present a selection of representative, promising and prominent approaches from scientific multi-risk research to illustrate recent advancements from the academic community. Part 2 aims to classify sectoral dependencies and provides guidelines for the sectoral representatives on how to identify and navigate multi-sector risk. Sectoral interdependencies are first classified through the lens of undisturbed conditions: functional, spatial, financial, and
societal. Combining this with analysis of hazard impact studies, four typologies of multi-sector risk are developed: spillover, co-dependent, interacting, intersecting and interacting independent. Finally, part 2 of this report presents a set of questions for stakeholders (Table 2-3); these questions aim to facilitate future stakeholder discussions in the MYRIAD-EU project and the identification of sectoral inter-dependencies to promote more effective Disaster Risk Management strategies

  • Good Governance
  • Regulatory/standards/targets measures